Performance and failure assessment monitor

ABSTRACT

A performance and failure assessment monitor which assesses overall performance of the operation of the automatic landing mode of a flight control system for an aircraft. The monitor is connected to various sensors throughout the aircraft so that it can compare what the flight control system of the aircraft is accomplishing during a landing maneuver against an independent model generated within the monitor of what the flight control system should be accomplishing. The resultant comparison is displayed to the pilot as a measure of relative confidence that the landing will be accomplished properly. The monitor also includes failure verification and failure reversion control for making immediate and accurate assessments of the consequence of a failure of any component in the aircraft which in anyway affects the ability of the flight control and flight guidance instrument systems to operate properly, for correcting the failure when possible and for displaying only the critical failure information to the pilot of the aircraft.

United States Patent 1 July 18,1972

Harenberg, Jr.

[54] PERFORMANCE AND FAILURE ASSESSMENT MONITOR [72] inventor: Hamid L. Harenberg, Jr., Long Beach,

Calif.

[73] Assignee: McDonnell Douglas Corporation I [22] Filed: Oct. 5,1970

[2| l Appl. No.: 78,073

Primary Examiner-Eugene G. Botz Assistant Examiner-R. Stephen Dildine, Jr. Attrney-Walter J. Jason, Donald L. Royer and George W. Finch ABSTRACT A performance and failure assessment monitor which assesses overall performance of the operation of the automatic landing mode of a flight control system for an aircraft. The monitor is connected to various sensors throughout the aircraft so that it can compare what the flight control system of the aircraft is accomplishing during a landing maneuver against an independent model generated within the monitor of what the flight [52] US. Cl. ..235/l50.2, 244/77 M control system should be accomplishing. The resultant comf 8 8 parison is displayed to the pilot as a measure of relative conof Search A, B, fidence that the will be accomplished properly The 244177 I 77 M monitor also includes failure verification and failure reversion a control for making immediate and accurate assessments of the [56] References Cmd consequence of a failure of any component in the aircraft UNITED STATES PATENTS which in anyway affects the ability of the flight control and flight guidance instrument systems to operate properly, for 3,443,073 /1969 Cohen ..235/ 150.2 correcting h f il when possible and for displaying only 8t B the critical failure infonnafion to the pilot of the aircraft Claim, 26 Drawing Figures fll/wzi Wfi/(flT/O/Vf 544M: 106/! fizz :7 ff/VfflZ tar/Hana md/i/f MAW/r MzM/0z Ali/W5 Min/V5 04774 Ami/v5 Z 3 j/fIEM Ff/EES/OA/ @Vt'If/dfl /A////5/7 a/v/rm in, 2

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PERFORMANCE AND FAILURE ASSESSMENT MONITOR BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION All weather landing systems are becoming particularly desirable to the commercial aircraft industry since the expense of weather caused delays and/or landings at alternate landing fields is becoming economically prohibitive. Various all weather landing systems have evolved in the past. These systems have not, however, included means for indicating the landing system is operating properly which instill enough confidence in the pilot that he will consistently allow the system to control a fully automatic landing with passengers on board the aircraft.

The prior-art approach to performance and failure monitoring for all weather landing systems such as shown in Sebern, U. S. Pat. No. 3,439,321, is based on the following two principles: component failures can be detected by comparing the output signals from an active component with like signals from redundant components or with fixed predetermined reference signals; and secondly, satisfactory landing performance can be inferred from the fact that all components of the landing system are operating within specified tolerances as indicated by the component failure test above. The current popularity of this approach in the monitoring of complex all weather landing systems is based on the fact that it is extremely difiicult to define the criteria which describe a satisfactory landing maneuver, and that it is even more difficult to devise a method of measuring compliance with such criteria.

The object of present automatic flight control systems is to exercise a varying degree of precise control over a known region of operation for the aircraft. One limitation of this concept is that in practice, a precise description of the total range of possible aircraft operation has never been required. Designers have tended to halt the design of their automatic flight control systems at a point where a reasonable degree of control is achieved. This practice is prevalent because the pilot is always present to assume the role of predictor controller in those areas of flight for which the automatic flight control system is known to provide inadequate control. The result is that over a limited range of operation, the present automatic flight control systems do a reasonable job of controlling the aircraft. However, as the performance limits of such a system are approached, the performance of the sub systems therein becomes anomalous and they may actually tend to fight one another in accomplishing their respective functions causing the complete break down of the system during large exclusions from nominal operation. In addition, the functioning of one system on the aircraft is usually dependent upon proper operation of several associated but relatively independent sub-systems, which may or may not have been designed with this aspect of system dependence in mind. Specifically, most autopilots require a longitudinal trim system to keep the aircraft in a dynamic response range for which the control laws implemented in the autopilot are valid. A similar situation exists between the autopilot and the speed control system.

When prior art monitor techniques are applied to systems of this type, they monitor only the functional performances of each component part of the autopilot, and of the various subsystems and as long as every component is working within prescribed tolerances, it is assumed that the aircraft is being controlled in a satisfactory manner. Such prior art monitor systems are thus twice removed from the actual performance of the aircraft and may be subject to dangerous errors, as when the sub-systems are fighting one another dynamically, yet none of the sub-systems are outside their monitored tolerances.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION A successful landing may be viewed as a dynamical process in which the controlled aircraft successfully attains a series of defined terminal states which are related to the various maneuvers associated with approach and landing without exceeding maneuver limit criteria. For instance, a successful touchdown may be defined in terms of the longitudinal and lateral spatial coordinates, the instantaneous vertical velocity, the altitude (pitch, roll and yaw) and the forward velocity of the aircraft at ground intercept. Therefore, any valid assessment of landing performance status must assure, to a high degree of confidence, that all of these variables will be contained within well-defined bounds at touchdown. A definitive interpretation of what is required to make this assessment is as follows: If the aircraft is not at the center of the Instrument Landing System (ILS) cone the activity of the autopilot must be consistent with proper control action to return the aircraft to the center thereof. There also must be some indication that the flight control system is capable of returning the aircraft to the center of the [LS cone and is capable of achieving relatively stable conditions before the aircraft touchdown. This estimation must account for prevailing environmental conditions and aircraft attitude limits. There must also be some indication that the ILS beams forming the cone are not shifting as a result of interference to the extent of adversely effecting the landing. The short term control response of the aircraft must be checked to afford confidence that the aircraft is capable of performing the high response flare maneuver immediately before touchdown. Also it should be ascertained in advance that adequate control authority is available to command the flare rotation of the aircraft. Lastly, the removal of heading error prior to touchdown due to cross winds and the like and the containment of forward velocity within tolerable limits must be verified. The present performance and failure assessment monitor accomplishes all these requirements.

It should be realized that the pilot is necessarily the primary monitor of any automatic landing because of his responsibility to the passengers and his natural instinct for his own safety. For this reason, an extremely high level of pilot confidence is required if automatic landing systems are to achieve the levels of utilization demanded by their cost. Given the basic propositions that: the landing maneuver can be safely controlled by a fully automatic fail operational system; and that the landing maneuver including the portions thereof enumerated in the preceding paragraphs must be monitored in the absolute sense by the pilot to assure his confidence in the system, there must be some means to accomplish a satisfactory interface between the system and the pilot. The performance and failure assessment monitor described herein is intended to provide this interface.

The present invention accomplishes the above mentioned interface by providing means by which the pilot can observe and monitor the overall landing process. This concept as embodied in the present monitor is unique both as to the scope and the depth of the monitoring function. The performance of a landing maneuver is evaluated at the highest level of relevancy, namely, the spatial relationship which exists between the controlled aircraft and the ground reference and the character of the operational environment. Likewise, the operational status of the automatic landing system itself is assessed and controlled in' terms of the degree to which each subsystem therein is or is not contributing to the successful completion of the landing maneuver. A landing status assessment of this depth permits the pilot to monitor at a very high functional level. At this level his decisions are likely to be derived from the exercise of judgement in chosing between weighted alternatives rather than from a subjective interpretation of some lesser observation of the landing process.

The fundamental aspect of the present performance and failure assessment monitor is the incorporation of predictor means. The predictor means include various models which essentially duplicate, in a simplified manner, the automatic control system guidance laws and the aircraft dynamic responses to autopilot or pilot commands. Using these models, the predictor means are able to extrapolate the approximate future position of the aircraft from knowledge of the existing state at any given time. This information is used to provide a readout of the expected landing coordinates and probability information as to whether a relatively stable condition of the aircraft will be achieved for a reasonable time prior to touchdown.

For example, if the automatic landing system fails to operate at all, the trajectory predicted by the predictor means will not correlate with the actual path of the aircraft and thus the monitor will signal the failure.

The presence of external environmental conditions such as wind shear or gusts is assessed by the observation of an irregularity of the aircraft trajectory compared to a maneuver subject to no external forces and by the observation of the trend of the prediction trajectories, that is, even though an early prediction does not account for the effects of subsequent external disturbances, the projections by the predictor means are continuously updated so the effect of these disturbances on the landing conditions becomes apparent in subsequent predictions.

The other external factor that can influence an automatic landing is irregularity of the ground radiation pattern by the lLS such that the localizer and glide slope beams projected thereby do not define a straight and true path to touchdown. In this event the aircraft, as controlled by the autopilot, will try to follow the beams wherever they direct. If the bends are present in the localizer or glide slope beam or if the ground facility fails to generate a good beam within a few hundred feet of the ground, a critical situation can be created where the aircraft is diverted so far from the proper approach path that it cannot be returned to the path in time to make a safe landing. The onset of this critical condition is identified almost immediately by the predictor means so that other means such as inertial means are switched in to guide the aircraft to a proper touchdown or the pilot is warned to stop the approach and go around" while he still has the opportunity.

The present performance assessment monitor not only can be used to assure that the approach and touchdown phases of an automatic landing are safely completed, it can also be used to monitor the aircraft during the landing roll to indicate to the pilot whether or not the automatic landing system will control the aircraft within certain limits on the runway and whether his braking will safely stop the aircraft on the runway.

The present performance assessment monitor can also be used as a manual approach monitor to provide monitoring capability for the flight director mode of landing operation. This is accomplished by utilizing the same performance functions and models in the predictor means as for a fully automatic landing but with modification of the command lags therein and the inclusion of wider tolerances in altitude and attitude control since the response of aircraft when being controlled manually is difierent than the response thereof when being controlled by an autopilot. In such a manner, the system can also be used as a training aid so that trainee pilots have means to warn them of approaching problems during a landing maneuver.

It is an object of the present invention to provide means for monitoring the operational status of an automatic flight control system and of the associated systems in an aircraft to determine to what degree each system is or is not jeopardizing the successful completion of a landing maneuver.

Another object is to provide a performance assessment monitor which will evaluate for validity all failure indications as sensed by subsystem failure monitors.

Another object is to provide a perfomiance assessment monitor which upon verification of sensed failures in the operative components of the landing system will assure proper reversion switching within the landing system to assure the safety ofthe landing maneuver.

Another object is to provide a display system for an aircraft which operates with the concurrence of the pilot, but without the need of subjective interpretation by him, to manage the elements and subsystems which provide flight control to the aircraft to achieve a maximum probability of success during approach and landing.

Another object is to provide means for continuously determining the probable success of an impending landing and for evaluating available alternatives so that the combination of control elements or subsystems which will maximize the probability of a safe landing or the probability of a successful missed approach in the event that a safe landing becomes improbable, are selected.

Another object is to provide a performance assessment monitor which will annunciate to the pilot all failures which effect the safety of the landing maneuver but which will not annunciate to the pilot those failures which will not lead to degraded landing performance or safety.

Another object is to provide to the pilot a continuously updated display of just how the landing maneuver is progressing and how it is likely to continue to progress.

Another object is to provide a performance assessment monitor capable of informing the pilot as to the functional operating status of his guidance displays.

Another object is to provide a performance assessment monitor which is fail passive and fail obvious for all internal failures.

Another object is to provide a performance and assessment monitor which provides a satisfactory interface between the automatic landing system of the aircraft and the pilot.

Another object is to provide a system whose function may be readily extended to control the aircraft directly in lieu of the basic autopilot through a slight increase im complexity of the present command models, and to control the end conditions of the maneuvers associated with approach and landing by processing the outputs of the predictor means to modify the dynamic characteristics of the basic autopilot of the aircraft.

Another object is to provide a new approach for control of component failure validation and subsystem disconnect. Component integrity is interpreted in terms of its effect on the aircraft performance during the maneuver in question, with resulting system disconnect governed accordingly. One specific implementation to realize this strategy includes: disconnect action based on component (i.e., sensor) failure indications is delayed for an extended interval unless the indication is associated with; a condition of degraded performance as determined by the performance assessment means, or a condition in which a satisfactory match is not obtained between the sensor signal, processed as necessary for comparison purposes, and an equivalent signal derived from other dissimilar but related sensors.

Another object is to provide a logic system which manages the failure logic signals from the guidance system and associated sensors to individually relate associated failure indications and aircraft performance to determine their reality and meaning, select sensor data for use in landing performance evaluation, and control resultant output signals indicating status of the landing operation and allowing reversion of the operational configuration of the flight guidance system.

Another object is to provide an information system to continuously display the status and probable success of the landing process, and inform the pilot of any failure judged to be critical to the successful completion of the landing process.

Another object is to provide a management system which has authority to inhibit automatic shutdown of the flight guidance and control sub-systems, and which, in the event of abnormal conditions, has the authority to display a takeover command with a recommendation for specific subsequent action by the pilot.

Another object is to provide a monitor system which can easily be extended into a guidance system by proper display of information available therein.

Another object is to provide means for adjusting a variablegain autopilot to achieve near-optimal performance and simultaneously providing a definitive assessment of the resulting performance.

These and other objects and advantages of the present performance assessment monitor will become apparent after considering the following detailed specification which covers pertinent portions thereof in conjunction with the accompanying drawings wherein:

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS FIG. 1 is a block diagram of the present performance and failure assessment monitor;

FIGS. 2A, 2B and 2C are diagrams of state variable derivation means;

FIG. 3 is a diagram of a lateral predictor model;

FIG. 4 is a diagram of a longitudinal predictor model;

FIG. 5 is a diagram of a flare predictor model;

FIG. 6 is a diagram of a pitch command model;

FIG. 7 is a diagram of a roll command model;

FIGS. 8A and 8B are a diagram of an align model;

FIG. 9 is a diagram of means to compute a localizer performance index;

FIG. 10 is a diagram of means to compute a glide slope perfonnance index;

FIG. 11 is a diagram of a short period yaw model;

FIG. 12 is a diagram of a short period pitch response model;

FIG. 13 is a diagram of a short period roll response model;

FIG. 14 is a diagram of lateral prediction uncertainty computation means;

FIG. 15 is a diagram of longitudinal prediction uncertainty computation means;

FIGS. 16A and 16B are a diagram of touchdown prediction computation means;

FIG. 17 is a diagram of variable derivation for go-around altitude loss calculation means;

FIG. 18 is a diagram of elevator logic;

FIG. 19 is a diagram of a flare and retard initiation monitor;

FIGS. 20A and 20B are a diagram of a rollout steering monitor; and

FIG. 21 is a diagram of a braking monitor.

DESCRIPTION OF THE PRESENT EMBODIMENTS Referring to the drawings more particularly by reference numbers, number in FIG. I refers to a performance and failure assessment monitor (PAF AM) of the present invention with the essential operative portions thereof shown. The PAFAM 30 includes sensor evaluator means 32 which are connected to receive inputs from various sensors throughout the aircraft. The sensor data evaluator means 32 in the present embodiment convert sensor data to a useable form for use elsewhere in the PAFAM 30. The means 32 compare signals from like sensors or with signals derived from the combination of sensor data from dissimilar sensors to discover disagreement and to provide a validated set of best data from each sensor array to performance assessment means 34. In the case of attitude and radio sensors, for example, a valid set of data consists of the output of a good sensor, while for actuator position transducers the average of the associated transducers is used. Disagreement signals from the sensor evaluator means 32 are also supplied to failure verification means 36.

The failure assessment function is performed by failure verification means 36, logic inhibit means 38 and reversion control means 40. These components perform a logical accumulation of fail signals for the purpose of confirming the existence of a failure, generate the appropriate indications to the flight crew and maintenance personnel by means of maintenance indicators and other annunciators, and also allow reversion of the failed sub-system.

The existence of a failure is verified in the failure verification means 36 by combining the indicationof the failure signal from the failed component with logically associated failure indications or disagreement between like signals downstream of the failure. The indication may also be confirmed by a correlated signal from the performance assessment means 34, indicating degraded aircraft performance or sub-system performance. If no other indication verifies a particular failure, it may still be confirmed by a time weighted factor which accumulates short period repetitive failure indication signals as well as steady failure indication signals.

The output of the failure verification means 36 is fed to the logic inhibit drivers 38 and the reversion control means 40. The logic inhibit means maintain an inhibit signal over the failure logic and each line replaceable unit (LRU) of the monitored flight control system until a failure is confirmed at which time the inhibit is lifted, permitting the LRU to ann unciate its failure through the appropriate fault annunciation indicator or in critical cases, to the pilot.

The reversion control means 40 have inputs both from the performance assessment means 34 and the failure verification means 36. The reversion control means 40 operate to lift the inhibit function thereof to allow a failed system to switch itself out. This is accomplished when the failure indication is confirmed as described above. The reversion control means 40 also have an output connectedto the discrete display generation means 42.

The discrete display generation means 42 have inputs connected to receive outputs from the reversion control means 40 and the performance assessment means 34. The discrete display generator 42 then energizes indication means to annunciate the preferred pilot action, based upon knowledge of the verified failures within the flight control system.

The above mentioned performance assessment means 34 process information concerning the aircraft's dynamic and navigational behavior and determine whether the impending landing is likely to be successful and feed this information to display means 44. This determination is based upon the existing state of the monitored automatic landing system and the environment within which the system is operating.

The performance assessment means 34 are divided into two relatively independent portions; a fast-time predictor portion and a real time portion. The fast-time portion is used to predict the touchdown point of the aircraft in longitudinal and lateral directions while the real time portion determines the extent of the external disturbances and the acceptability of autopilot response. The real time portion also produces a state variable derivation which is the combination of earth reference signals from various sensors on the aircraft with ratio beam signals from the ILS. Means are provided to derive the best available aircraft positional and velocity information (position, rate and acceleration) relative to the nominal navigation reference.

For clarity and convenience the following figures use analog symbology to define the functional requirements of one example of typical performance assessment means 34. The symbology includes selected Laplace transfer functions with various properly chosen time constants r and blocks showing graphically the input-output relationship thereof with the abscissa as the input axis and the ordinate as the output axis.

STATE VARIABLE DERIVATION The basic approach aid used today by an autopilot in an aircraft or by the pilot making an instrument landing is the radio ILS beams. Since these beams, under certain circumstances, have bends and noise, the PAFAM 30 removes as much as it can of the high frequency noise while maintaining the correct phasing of the low frequency information contained therein.

The state variable derivation means for deriving the aircraft variables is shown in block diagram form in FIG. 2 and includes 3 different sections labeled FIGS. 2A, 2B, and 2C.

FIG. 2A shows the derivation of the sink speed I-I used during the flare maneuver. This sink speed Fl is accurate when the terrain over which the aircraft is decending is relatively smooth. The sink speed H is derived by filtering the radio altitude H and the lagged normal acceleration A,, through filters 46 and 48 respectively, adding the outputs of the filters 46 and 48 in a summer 50 and a combining filter 52. The high frequency information component of the sink speed is obtained from the normal accelerometer on the aircraft while the radio altimeter thereon supplies low frequency data.

FIG. 2B shows a means for deriving longitudinal axis variables used prior to flare, AH, AH,, (Al-I), (AI-I and H in which the altitude acceleration signal A, is passed through a simple,

first order washout filter 54 to remove any null offsets the accelerometer signal may contain prior to its use to initialize the flare predictor model, FIG. 5. The earth reference sink speed H is obtained by adding the barometric altitude rate H and the normal accelerometer signal in summer 56 and passing the resultant signal through filter 58. To obtain the change in vertical speed (AH the filtered output H is added to a constant representing the nominal sink speed in summer 60 and is then passed through a high pass filter 62 to remove any offsets. This output (AH is the change in vertical speed with respect to the earth reference. However, since the change of vertical speed (AH) which is of interest is with reference to the ILS glide slope beam, the signal (AH representing the change in vertical speed in the earth axis system is combined with a beam rate signal AH,.

The radio signal labeled G.S. DEV. is converted into feet by a gain program 64 and a conversion factor 66. The gain program 64 is required due to the convergent characteristics of the ILS beam. The correct input to the gain program 64 is range from the ILS transmitter but since this information is usually not available, the co-location of ILS and Distance Measuring Equipment (DME) being rare, the radio altitude H is combined with the converted beam deviation signal G.S. DEV. within the gain program 64 to derive a range. The constant shown (0.363) is the value of the conversion factor when the gain program 64 has a unity value and the aircraft is on the ILS beam center at 1000 feet altitude. The beam deviation signal AH is combined through a complementary filter 68 to form a rate signal. The output of the complementary filter 68 is processed through a synchronizer composed of integrator 70 and the associated loop and added to the inertial rate signal (AH in summer 72 to obtain the final rate signal (AH) for use elsewhere in the performance assessment portion 34 of the PAFAM 30. The output of the synchronizer is identical to the output of the complimentary filter 68 ifthe gain K thereof is infinite. As the value of the gain K is reduced, the output (AH) is not identical to the filter output. However, the gain K can be set to a sufficiently high value to obtain a signal which is for all practical purposes identical to the input. The synchronizer 70 is used so that when the glide slope signal from the ILS is lost momentarily such as when the [LS unit on the ground fails, the monitor 30 will have a vertical rate reference. For a period of time, which can be up to seconds when the glide slope signal is lost, the No G.S. switch 74 will be in the open state disconnecting beam deviation inputs to the synchronizer and the inertial rate (AH is used in conjunction with a memorized (synchronized) rate reference from the integrator 70.

Beam rate (AH,) with no inertial component is also generated. This signal is generated by passing the beam deviation signal AH which was previously described, through a filter 76. The corner frequency on filter 76 is such that over the frequency range of interest, it functions as a differentiator. This signal (AH,) is used for beam tracking performance criteria where the aircraft position relative to the ILS beam instead of with respect to the runway is desired.

The basic displacement signal AH is obtained through the use of complimentary filtering between the beam deviation signal AH and the inertial rate signal (A1 1 The rate signal (Al-I is approximately integrated through a first order lag 78. A synchronizer composed of integrator 80 and the associated feedback loop is used for the No G.S. mode as part of the complimentary filtering. The synchronizer acts as a washout to the inertial reference signal (AH and as a first order lag to the beam deviation signal AH,. In the No G.S." mode, switch 82 opens, fixing the displacement reference AH which is added in summer 84 with the inertially generated position (AH to obtain the displacement signal AH.

FIG. 2C shows in diagrammatic form the derivation of the lateral axis variables AY, Y,, Y, Y and Y. This derivation is the same as the longitudinal axis with the exception of the lateral inertial rate Y and acceleration Y. The earth reference acceleration Y is obtained by combining in summer 88 the lateral acceleration A of the aircraft with the aircraft bank angle 4) converted to the proper units by converter 90. If the turn of the aircraft is coordinated, the aircraft lateral acceleration A will be zero and the acceleration with respect to the earth will be proportional to the bank angle db. The constant of proportionality of the converter 90 is the acceleration of gravity G divided by a radian to degrees conversion factor. The lateral acceleration input supplies the necessary information to correct the calculation for non-coordinated turns. The sum of the lateral acceleration A, and the bank angle 4: is passed through a washout filter 92 to remove any null ofi'sets in either of the two signals A, and d). This earth reference acceleration signal Y is processed through a first order lag 94 which approximates the operation of an integrator to obtain the inertial reference velocity term Y The remainder of the lateral variable derivation is identical to that of the longitudinal axis previously described in FIG. 2B.

Predictor Models The performance assessment means 34 predict the touchdown point based on the aircraft's state at the start of the prediction and include a lateral directional predictor model 102 shown in FIG. 3, a longitudinal predictor model 104 shown in FIG. 4, and a flare predictor model 106 shown in FIG. 5. Referring to FIG. 3, the portion 108 thereof enclosed by the dashed lines operates in fast-time while the remaining portion 110 operates in real time. The fast-time portion 108 of the lateral predictor model 102 is a fourth order differential equation. The equation is non-linear in that it incorporates a limiter 112 which limits the sum of rate y, position y and position integral added in summer 114 to produce a command signal. This constraint of the limiter 112 represents the command limit of the aircraft automatic flight control system.

The basic method of solution is to obtain the command signal from the summer 114, limit this signal as need be in the limiter 112 and then pass the signal through integrator 116 with feedback to obtain acceleration The acceleration i is integrated by integrator 118 to obtain rate y, the rate y is integrated by integrator 120 to obtain the position y. The integral, position, and rate signals are summed using the gains K1, K2 and K3 respectively as shown to obtain the command signal 4 Each of the integrators 116, 118, 120 and 122 is initialized at the start of every predictor solution. The initial condition (IC) of integrator 122 is the integral initial condition and is also used in the command model which will be discussed hereinafter. This input is obtained by passing the position input AY through a dead band 124 and a first order lag 126. The input represents the approximate time integral of beam deviation. The function of the dead zone 124 is to remove or reduce any null offsets that might saturate the lag filter 126. The combination of a short time constant on the lag 126 which approximates the integral function, a large dead zone, and an IC gain K5 of less than unity provides sufiicient modeling accuracy while minimizing the problem of null amplification. The ICs Y, Y and AY for the integrators 116, 118 and 120 respectively are obtained directly from the parameter derivation of FIG. 2C as previously described.

At the start of each predictor run, a fast-time clock or counter 128 is initialized. This clock time 1,, is compared to the time to touchdown which is derived later to determine the stop time of the predictor. At the stop time the displacement signal y is passed to a hold circuit 130 by closing of a normally open switch 132 so that only the final value of the predictor 108 will be passed to a first order lag 134 for smoothing before being routed to the touchdown predictor display, to be discussed hereinafter.

The predictor also determines the recovery time t for each fast time solution. Recovery time t is defined as the time required for the predicted response to be within a certain threshold. Referring to FIG. 3 this threshold is defined by the value of y, bias 136 and threshold 137. An update and store 138 always contains the value of the last time r,,, at which the predicted displacement y is larger than the allowed threshold due to the action of switch 140., which is closed by the signal from the threshold 137. The value on the update and store 138 is passed to a hold circuit 142 by switch 144 which closes at the completion of each prediction run. The output of the hold circuit 142 is therefore the recovery time I The time to touchdown i is the predicted time for the aircraft to reach the ground and it is calculated by dividing the altitude H of the aircraft by the average altitude rate on the glidescope H. The time of interest is the time that it will take the aircraft to reach the Category II window which is obtained by imposing a dead zone 146 on the time to touchdown signal 1 A constant is then added at summer 148 to avoid dividing by zero. If the recovery time t is ever greater than the time to the window, the output of summer 150 becomes positive and the takeover logic is set. The uncertainty of the predictor 102 is obtained by dividing the time to recover I by the time to the Category II window in a division circuit 152. This division is smoothed through a first order lag 154 to obtain the lateral predictor uncertainty signal t /t If optional roll-out control means to be discussed hereinafter are included in the PAFAM 30, switch 144 will be opened at touchdown so no takeover can be generated by the predictor 102 during the roll-out of the aircraft.

The longitudinal predictor 104 shown in FIG. 4, is similar to the lateral directional predictor 102 with a slight increase in complexity due to a requirement to reflect the effects at airspeed. The combination of an integrator 156 associated with IC K U and an additional closure provided by K feedback 158, represent the air-speed variation to the predictor 104. With the exception that the pitch axis does not need a command limiter like limiter 112, the fast-time longitudinal predictor 160 is identical to the fast-time lateral predictor 108. The K,, feedback 158 provides the acceleration feedback signal (it) while integrator 162 and its feedback represents the command response transfer function. The initial condition for integrator 162 is obtained by filtering the acceleration output fl obtained as previously described.

Since the longitudinal predictor run is terminated at a predetermined altitude usually equivalent to lOO feet, the takeover logic is set directly by switch 164 from the recovery time deviation and does not have to be compensated to obtain the window criteria discussed in relation with the lateral predictor 102.

The time to touchdown r derivation is also described in FIG. 4. The time to touchdown t is obtained by dividing, in division circuit 166, the radio altimeter output H by the negative of average sink speed H. Average sink speed 11 is obtained by passing the difference between sink speed relative to nominal AH and the total altitude rate H as combined in summer 168 through an averaging filter 1 70. Below an altitude of 100 feet the sink speed AH relative to the [LS beam cannot be used since beam track is no longer maintained and therefor switch 172 is opened. The development of the predictor uncertainty for the longitudinal axis is the same as that described for the lateral axis above.

The third fast time predictor is the flare predictor 106 shown in FIG. 5. The fast-time portion 174 of flare predictor 106 is a simulation of a third order, non-linear differential equation. The fast-time flare predictor 174 starts operation at an aircraft altitude of 100 feet, however, the switch 176 in the forward loop prevents any closed loop response until the signal V which is K h, K,h, and a nominal H bias combined by summer 178, becomes positive. This is equivalent to an aircraft pitch-up command. Once the switch 176 closes it does not reopen until the predictor run is complete. If V, is positive at the start of the predictor run, the switch 176 closes and remains closed for all subsequent predictor runs.

The fast-time flare predictor model solutions for altitude h, altitude rate h, and altitude acceleration it are obtained using an exponential flare law. K,, the gain in the altitude h feedback loop 180, K the gain in the altitude rate It feedback loop 182 and the bias added by summer 184 represents an implementation of the flare control law. The integrator 186 and its feedback loop for altitude acceleration represents the aircraft lag. Integrators 186, 188 and 190 of the predictor 174, respectively, produce altitude acceleration h, altitude rate Ii and altitude h signals. The initial condition for integrator 188 is the sink speed H that was obtained from the combination of the radio altimeter signal H, and the normal accelerometer signal A, in FIG. 2A, the initial condition for integrator 190 is the radio altitude H, and the initial condition for integrator 186 is the lagged acceleration that is used in the longitudinal predictor as the initial condition of integrator 162 FIG. 4).

The output of the flare fast-time predictor 174 is not the displacement of the aircraft at a particular time but the length of time required for the predictor 174 to obtain a zero altitude. This time in conjunction with the aircraft ground velocity is used to obtain the predicted touchdown point.

The aircraft ground velocity v is obtained by combining the airspeed signal, CAS, from the air data computer in the aircraft with the sum of derived total sink speed and the sink speed relative to the beam. Assuming that the aircraft is flying an average glide slope elevation angle, the ground speed is the negative of 20.9 multiplied by the sink speed. The 20.9 factor is the recipical of the tangent of the average glide slope elevational angle of 2.75 degrees. Two thirds of this ground speed signal 20.9(1 -l-Al l), is combined in summer 192 with onethird of the airspeed signal, CAS, to yield the best approximation for the true ground speed 11 Below an altitude of feet the aircraft flare maneuver will be initiated. After flare the aircraft will no longer be in the region where the glide slope signal from the ILS is intelligible so the altitude rate to ground velocity conversion discussed above, is no longer useable. Therefore, the only speed signal below this altitude consists of airspeed synchronized to the value of the u that existed when switch 194 was opened at 100 feet. The memorized reference as supplied thereafter by storage means 196 is required to minimize error due to the possible presence of longitudinal winds.

The distance X traveled from an altitude of 100 feet to touchdown is obtained by integrating the derived ground speed v in integrator 198. This distance, X is added in summer 200 to the product of the ground speed 11 and the flare time signal I, at h =0 filtered by filter 202 to obtain the variation of the predicted touchdown point during the flare maneuver. This prediction should remain constant. To obtain the touchdown point relative to the nominal, a constant bias is subtracted from the derived distance in summer 204 to obtain the perturbed distance Ax. The final flare touchdown point, X is obtained by adding in summer 206 the perturbed distance Ax to a signal which represents the distance that the aircraft will land long if the aircraft throttles are not retarded. This signal is zero unless the no retard" logic is set.

The uncertainty signal AX associated with the flare prediction is generated by differentiating the predicted touchdown distance Ax in a high pass filter 208. For the nominal run, the predicted touchdown point will remain a constant. Therefore, the derivative AX will be zero. When a system is perturbed the predicted touchdown point Ax will be varying and there will be an uncertainty associated with the prediction. If the ab solute value of flare uncertainty signal Air becomes greater than a predicted predetermined value, the degraded performance logic will be set by a signal passed thereto by block 210.

If the predicted touchdown point Ax becomes larger or smaller than the acceptable values, the takeover" logic will be set by a signal passed thereto by block 212. The acceptable values (c and c of the predicted touchdown point Ax are not equal since it is more acceptable to land long than it is to land short. The takeover" logic will also be set if the final value of the predicted sink speed h is more negative than a predetermined value shown as 8 feet per second in block 214. The takeover logic will also be set if the PAFAM flare logic is set to the no flare" state. This setting will be discussed hereinafter.

If the rollout option discussed above is included in the PAFAM 30, switch is opened to deactivate the output of the flare predictor 174. However, the operation of the distance integrator 198 is still maintained so that the distance measurement x is reliable and can be used in the runway display computation.

Command Models Command models are used to determine how well the aircraft/autopilot combination is following the command control law. One of these command models, the pitch command model 216 is shown in FIG. 6. The basic concept is to determine the pitch angle variation from nominal and compare this to a commanded pitch angle. This pitch angle is computed on the basis of the variables displacement AH, rate AI- I, acceleration Fl, and integral lagged AH. The pitch command model 216 is initiated by ganged switches 218 and 220 which close at glide slope track as determined by the autopilot, and terminated when the flare mode is initiated at I feet and switch 222 opens.

In the pitch command model 216, the perturbed pitch angle 6 is obtained by differencing the vertical gyro output 0 with a constant 0 nom in summer 224 and passing the sum through a washout filter 226. The commanded pitchangle is then calculated by adding the input signals AH, AFI, H, and lagged AH in summer 228 through the appropriate gains K K K and K as shown. This commanded pitch angle is passed through a second order filter 230 which represents the approximate aircraft response to the commanded pitch angle to obtain the pitch model signal 6 This signal, 19, is added to the perturbed pitch angle 6 in summer 232 and passed through a smoothing filter 234 to obtain the pitch error output signal 0 The pitch error output signal 6 is used in the longitudinal uncertainty calculation. The error signal B is also passed through a dead zone 236 and gain K3 for use in the longitudinal touchdown prediction. The signal 0 therefore, does not influence the longitudinal touchdown prediction until it is greater than the predetermined value represented by the dead zone 236. The error signal (9 is also used to set the degraded and takeover" logic signals. If the error signal 0 is greater than a set value (C1) the degraded logic is set. If the error signal 0 on the other hand, is greater than C3, which is greater than Cl, then the takeover logic will be set if the aircraft is above the predetermined switchover altitude which as aforesaid is arbitrarily chosen at 100 feet at which time switch 238 is opened. Below 100 feet the pitch command model 216 cannot generate a takeover" condition because of the open condition of switch 238. When the No G.S." logic is set, switch 240 is moved as shown in FIG. 6 so that the degraded logic threshold is increased to be identical with that of the takeover" logic threshold.

The function of the roll command model 242, as shown in FIG. 7, is basically the same as that of the pitch command model 216. The perturbed roll angle 4') is attained in the same manner as the perturbed pitch angle, however, a nominal bias is not needed since the nominal roll angle is zero. The commanded roll angle (be is obtained by adding in summer 244 displacement AY, rate Y, integral lagged AY', and when the align mode is engaged and switch 246 is therefore closed, a heading term 111,-tl1,,,. The heading term tin-d1, is required to compensate the model 242 for the natural wing down condition when a forward slip maneuver is in progress. In this maneuver, the aircraft in a steady cross-wind condition, flies a course angle equal to the runway heading and a roll angle 4; sufficient to fly a zero localizer deviation path. Normal aircraft behavior before the align maneuver is to track with zero roll angle (1) and sufficient heading angle to maintain the ground track. The command generated by summer 244 is limited to C1 by limiter 247 to obtain the final roll command signal dzc. The remainder of the roll command model 242 is similar to that of the pitch command model 216 and performs approximately the same function except that switch 248, which opens on aircraft touchdown, is included to disable the roll command model 242 during the rollout mode when the optional rollout means are included in the PAFAM 30.

The align model 260, as shown in FIGS. 8A and 8B, is used to determine if the heading of the aircraft is being controlled in a reasonable manner during the align mode. The monitor align logic is set if both autopilot channels 262 and 264 have indicated an aligned condition or the radio altimeter signal H indicates an altitude below that altitude set by a Bias, as calculated in summer 266.

The align model 260 is started when the align mode of the autopilot is initiated and operates in real time to simulate the heading error decay characteristics associated with a proper align maneuver. The final integrator 268 is initialized with the heading error signal #1,, that is, the aircraft heading minus the runway heading Atll, at align initiate. The output :11 of integrator 268 decays to zero as a function of time. The output error signal ll; is obtained by differencing the model heading signal ill with the aircraft heading error signal Alllln summer 270, as shown. This output signal ill, is used in the uncertainty generation. The error signal d! is also used to set the degraded" and takeover" logic signals. The threshold for the degraded" logic, C1, is smaller than the takeover" logic threshold, C2, as shown.

The model heading rate 111, is accessable for use in the sensor validation logic. Also accessable are the heading signals 11/, and ill, required by the roll command model 242. The difference of :11, and the model heading r11, will initially be zero and will build up to a total heading change required during the align mode. This heading change is directly proportional to the amount of roll angle d required to fly the forward slip maneuver, as aforesaid.

A switch 272 is included in the align model 260 when the rollout option is included in the PAFAM 30. At touchdown switch 272 opens so the align model 260 cannot set the degraded" or takeover" logic during the rollout mode. Performance Index The performance assessment functions and the signals generated therein described in conjunction with FIGS. 2 through 8 indicate the future conditions and the acceptability of the aircraft/autopilot response. As such, these signals do not cause any change in output to the display means 44 as a result of turbulence, windshear, or ILS beam bends unless the predicted terminal conditions are effected thereby. Two other signals are therefore generated to reflect external disturbances in the control signals sent to the display means 44 for the purpose of providing visual correlation of the disturbances with other stimuli to the pilot such as that from his flight instruments. These signals are the localizer and glide slope performance indices, L and G the derivation of which are shown in FIGS. 9 and 10 respectively. The localizer performance index L is generated by properly weighting the variables Y, Y and Y generated in FIG. 2C by gains K K and K,,, respectively. The weighted variables are then added in summer 274 and passed through an averaging filter 276 to obtain the index L When an upset first occurs, due to turbulence, windshear or ILS beam bends. all three signals, Y Y,, and Y are additive and the resultant signal is large. However, during the recovery, the rate Y and acceleration Y terms, effectively cancel the position erro'r Y resulting in a small signal amplitude. Note that the rate and position information are derived solely from the beam information so that the indices are influenced by beam bends as well as by winds. This is also true of the glide slope performance index G which is generated in a like manner from the AH (AFI and A, signals, the first two of which are generated in FIG. 28.

Short Period Models The two major modes of control of an aircraft are the navigational modes which are long term in nature and the stabilization modes which are short term in nature. The navigational modes are monitored by the command models and the stabilization modes are monitored by the short period models.

The short period yaw model 280 is shown in FIG. 11. This model monitors the yaw damper closure. On aircraft having upper and lower rudders, the upper and lower rudder signals, 8 and 5, are added in summer 282 with a gain of one-half 

1. Means for monitoring the operation of an aircraft during a landing maneuver including: means operatively connected to sensors on the aircraft for generating signals representative of the state of the aircraft with respect to a predetermined point on the ground; predictor means connected to receive some of said signals representative of the state of the aircraft for generating therefrom signals representative of the future state of the aircraft with respect to said predetermined ground point; means to store predetermined portions of said predictor means generated signals; means to compare said stored predictor signals of what should be happening with said state signals of what is happening and to generate signals representative of the correlation therebetween; and means for displaying said signals representative of the future state of the aircraft with respect to said predetermined ground point including means to display said correlation signals with respect to said predetermined point so that the uncertainty of the predictor signals can be judged.
 2. The monitoring means defined in claim 1 wherein said predictor means operate in a time scale substantially faster than real time, said predictor means including: lateral predictor means for generating signals representative of the future lateral state of the aircraft with respect to said predetermined ground point; longitudinal predictor means for generating signals representative of the future longitudinal state of the aircraft with respect to said predetermined ground point; flare predictor means for generating signals representative of the predicted flare maneuver of the aircraft; and means to combine the signals from said longitudinal predictor means and said flare predictor means to produce signals representative of the predicted longitudinal position of the aircraft at landing touchdown.
 3. The monitoring means defined in claim 1 including: altitude loss calculation means connected to receive said state signals and to calculate therefrom the vertical distance that will be traveled before the descent of the aircraft can be stopped; means for comparing said vertical distance output of said altitude loss calculation means to the altitude of the aircraft and for generating signals indicative of whether the aircraft can be held off the ground and; means for displaying landing and go around strategy based on whether the aircraft can be held off the ground.
 4. The monitoring means defined in claim 1, wherein said predictor means include: means to predict the future state of the aircraft when the aircraft is being flown by an autopilot; and means to predict the future state of the aircraft when the aircraft is being flown by the pilot.
 5. The monitoring means defined in claim 1, wherein said predictor means include: means to predict the future lateral state of the aircraft after the aircraft has touched down; and means to predict the distance along the runway that will be traveled to bring the aircraft to a stop.
 6. The monitoring means defined in claim 1, including: threshold means connected to receive said correlation signals and to compare said correlation signals against predetermined levels, said threshold means generating output signals when said correlation signals indicate lack of correlation below said predetermined level; and means connected to receive said threshold means output for display of said lack of correlation.
 7. The monitoring means defined in claim 1, including: failure verification means for verifying the existence of a failure, said failure verification means including means to compare failure indications from components of the aircraft with said correlation signals to determine if the failure indication is valid and if the failure indicating component is adversely affecting the operation of the aircraft, and means connected to inhibit the reversion of failure indicating components when the failure therein is not verified.
 8. Means for monitoring the operation of an aircraft including: derivation means operatively connected to sensors on the aircraft for generating state variable signals which represent the physical state of the aircraft with respect to a predetermined reference; predictor means connected to receive selected state variable signals from said derivation means, said predictor means including model means for simulating the future physical states of the aircraft in reference to said state variable signals and for producing model signals representative of said future physical states; display means connected to said model means to display said future physical states of said aircraft; storage means for holding predetermined portions of said model signals; and comparitor means for comparing the correlation between said held portions of said model signals with selected state variable signals and for producing correlation signals representative of the correlation therebetween, said correlation signals being a measure of the certainty of said predictor means and being displayed as such by said display means.
 9. The monitoring means defined in claim 8, wherein said model means include: a lateral predictor model for predicting the lateral position of the aircraft at landing touchdown thereof; a longitudinal predictor model; and a flare predictor model, the predictions of said longitudinal predictor model and said flare predictor model being combined to predict the longitudinal position of the aircraft at landing touchdown thereof.
 10. The monitor means defined in claim 8, including: failure verification means connected to receive failure indications from components of the aircraft and correlation signals from said comparitor means, said failure verification outputs when failure indications and correlation signals confirming degraded performance are received thereby; and means responsive to said failure verification means output to allow operational components of the aircraft to be exchanged with those components whose failure has been so verified.
 11. The monitor means defined in claim 10, including: first threshold means for comparing said correlation signals to first predetermined standards and for producing degraded performance signals to said failure verification means when said correlation signals are outside the predetermined standards; and second threshold means foR comparing said correlation signals to secure predetermined standards which are outside the first predetermined standards, said second threshold means producing takeover signals which are displayed to the pilot by said display means.
 12. The monitoring means defined in claim 8, including attitude command means, said attitude command means having: command model means connected to said state variable signals which generate therefrom command outputs which are available to control automated flight controls of the aircraft.
 13. The monitoring means defined in claim 8 including short period models for assessing the stability of the control of the aircraft, said short period models having: averaging means connected to sense the effective deflection of control surfaces on said aircraft and to produce outputs representative thereof: filter means connected to receive predetermined state variable signals for converting said predetermined state variable signals into equivalent control surface command signals; and correlation means connected to receive said equivalent control surface command signals and said averaging means outputs as inputs thereto, said correlation means producing correlation outputs based on the correlation of the inputs fed thereto, whereby said correlation outputs are a measure of the stability of the control of the aircraft.
 14. The monitoring means defined in claim 8 including means for monitoring the rollout of the aircraft after the aircraft has landed, said rollout monitoring means having: predictor means for generating signals representative of the future lateral excursion of the aircraft from state variable signals fed thereto; means for generating signals representative of the actual lateral displacement of the aircraft on the runway; and means for combining said future lateral excursion signals and said lateral displacement signals into uncertainty signals; whereby said uncertainty signals and said lateral displacement signals are sent to said display means for display.
 15. Means for controlling the gain parameters of an autopilot of an aircraft to achieve optional performance thereof and for assessing the resulting autopilot performance, said autopilot controlling means including: means for generating signals representative of the state of the aircraft as sensed by sensors in the aircraft; prediction means having models with selectable sets of parameter gains therein, said models being initialized by selected state signals and thereafter generating output signals representative of future aircraft behavior therefrom using said selectable sets of parameter gains; and means for holding and comparing the outputs of said models for minimum values, whereby said set of parameter gains producing the minimum values can be used to reconfigure the gain parameters of the autopilot.
 16. The means defined in claim 15 including: display means connected to receive and display said model output signals when the set of parameter gains producing the minimum value is being used in said models.
 17. The means defined in claim 15 wherein said models include: a lateral predictor model for predicting future lateral positions of the aircraft for a predetermined interval; a longitudinal predictor model; and a flare predictor model; the predictions of said longitudinal predictor model and said flare predictor model being combined to predict the longitudinal positions of the aircraft for a predetermined interval.
 18. Means for monitoring the operation of an aircraft during a landing maneuver including: means operatively connected to sensors on the aircraft for generating signals representative of the state of the aircraft with respect to a predetermined point on the ground; predictor means connected to receive some of said signals representative of the state of the aircraft for generating therefrom signals representative of the future state of the aircraft with respect tO said predetermined ground point, said predictor means including altitude loss calculation means connected to receive some of said state signals and to calculate therefrom the vertical distance that will be traveled before the descent of the aircraft can be stopped; means for comparing said vertical distance output of said altitude loss calculation means to the altitude of the aircraft and for generating signals indicative of whether the aircraft can be held off the ground; and means for displaying said signals representative of the future state of the aircraft with respect to said predetermined ground point including means for displaying landing and go around strategy based on whether the aircraft can be held off the ground.
 19. Means for monitoring the operation of an aircraft during a landing maneuver including: means operatively connected to sensors on the aircraft for generating signals representative of the state of the aircraft with respect to a predetermined point on the ground; predictor means connected to receive some of said signals representative of the state of the aircraft for generating therefrom signals representative of the future state of the aircraft with respect to said predetermined ground point, said predictor means including means to predict the future state of the aircraft when the aircraft is being flown by an autopilot and means to predict the future state of the aircraft when the aircraft is being flown by the pilot; and means for displaying said signals representative of the future state of the aircraft with respect to said predetermined ground point.
 20. Means for monitoring the operation of an aircraft during a landing maneuver including: means operatively connected to sensors on the aircraft for generating signals representative of the state of the aircraft with respect to a predetermined point on the ground; predictor means connected to receive some of said signals representative of the state of the aircraft for generating therefrom signals representative of the future state of the aircraft with respect to said predetermined ground point, said predictor means including means to predict the distance along the runway that will be traveled to bring the aircraft to a stop and means to predict the future lateral state of the aircraft after the aircraft has touched down; and means for displaying said signals representative of the future state of the aircraft with respect to said predetermined ground point.
 21. Means for monitoring the operation of an aircraft including: derivation means for generating state variable signals which represent the physical state of the aircraft with respect to a predetermined reference; predictor means connected to receive selected state variable signals from said derivation means, said predictor means including model means for simulating the future physical states of the aircraft in reference to said state variable signals and for producing model signals representative of said future physical states; means for assessing the environmental disturbances through which the aircraft may be flying, said environmental assessment means having means connected to predetermined state variable signals for weighting and combining them, and means for averaging said combined predetermined state variable signals into signals representative of an assessment of the environmental disturbances through which said aircraft is flying; and display means connected to said model means and said assessment means to display said predicted future physical states of said aircraft and the uncertainty thereof due to the environmental disturbances.
 22. Means for monitoring the operation of an aircraft including: derivation means operatively connected to sensors on the aircraft for generating state variable signals which represent the physical state of the aircraft with respect to a predetermined reference; predictor means connected to receive selected state variable signals froM said derivation means, said predictor means including model means comprised of a lateral predictor model for predicting the lateral position of the aircraft at landing touchdown thereof, a longitudinal predictor model, and a flare predictor model, the predictions of said longitudinal predictor model and said flare predictor model being combined to predict the longitudinal position of the aircraft at landing touchdown thereof; and display means connected to said model means to display said lateral and longitudinal position predictions of said aircraft at landing touchdown thereof.
 23. Means for monitoring the operation of an aircraft including: derivation means operatively connected to sensors on the aircraft for generating state variable signals which represent the physical state of the aircraft with respect to a predetermined reference; predictor means connected to receive selected state variable signals from said derivation means, said predictor means including model means for simulating the future physical states of the aircraft in reference to said state variable signals and for producing model signals representative of said future physical states, said model means including short period models for assessing the stability of the control of the aircraft, said short period models having averaging means connected to sense the effective deflection of control surfaces on said aircraft and to produce outputs representative thereof, filter means connected to receive predetermined state variable signals for converting said predetermined state variable signals into equivalent control surface command signals, and correlation means connected to receive said equivalent control surface command signals and said averaging means outputs as inputs thereto, said correlation means producing correlation outputs based on the correlation of the inputs fed thereto, whereby said correlation outputs are a measure of the stability of the control of the aircraft; and display means connected to said model means to display said future physical states of said aircraft.
 24. Means for monitoring the operation of an aircraft including: derivation means operatively connected to sensors on the aircraft for generating state variable signals which represent the physical state of the aircraft with respect to a predetermined reference; predictor means connected to receive selected state variable signals from said derivation means, said predictor means including model means for simulating the future physical states of the aircraft in reference to said state variable signals and for producing model signals representative of said future physical states; display means connected to said model means to display said future physical states of said aircraft; and attitude command means having command model means connected to said state variable signals which generate therefrom command outputs which are available to control automated flight controls of the aircraft.
 25. The monitoring means defined in claim 24, including: failure verification means for verifying failure indications from components of the aircraft through comparison with similar indications and wherein said attitude command means also include: means to compare said command outputs of said command model means with outputs of the aircraft autopilot and for producing command correlation signals therefrom, and first threshold means for comparing said command correlation signals to first predetermined standards and for producing degraded performance signals to said failure verification means for comparison with said failure indications.
 26. The monitoring means defined in claim 25, wherein said attitude command means also include: second threshold means for comparing said command correlation signals to second predetermined standards which are outside the first predetermined standards, and second threshold means producing takeover signals which are displayed to the pilot by said display means.
 27. MeaNs for monitoring the operation of an aircraft including: derivation means operatively connected to sensors on the aircraft for generating state variable signals which represent the physical state of the aircraft with respect to a predetermined reference including means for generating signals representative of the actual lateral displacement of the aircraft on a runway; predictor means connected to receive selected state variable signals from said derivation means, said predictor means including model means for simulating the future physical states of the aircraft in reference to said state variable signals and for producing model signals representative of said future physical states including means for generating signals representative of the future lateral excursion of the aircraft from state variable signals fed thereto; display means; and means for combining said future lateral excursion signals and said lateral displacement signals into uncertainty signals, whereby said uncertainty signals and said lateral displacement signals are sent to said display means for display.
 28. The monitoring means defined in claim 27 including: threshold means connected to receive said future lateral excursion signals, said threshold means producing an output to said display means for display when said future lateral excursion signals exceed predetermined levels.
 29. The monitoring means defined in claim 27 including: means for determining the distance the aircraft has travelled on the runway after landing; means for determining the distance the aircraft travels past a predetermined point on the runway before landing; means for computing the stopping distance of the aircraft from its velocity and acceleration; and means for combining the aforesaid distances into a signal representative of the distance the aircraft will travel beyond the predetermined point before stopping, which stopping signal is fed to said display means.
 30. The monitoring means defined in claim 29 including: means for generating a signal representative of the deceleration of the aircraft; and threshold means for producing an output for display on said display means when said deceleration signal is below a predetermined level set in said threshold means. 